How High Will Gold Go in 2011?
By Jeff Clark, BIG GOLD
After stellar years for both gold and silver, what prices will
precious metals hit in 2011? Here's an analysis based strictly on their
price behavior in the current bull market.
First, take a look at the annual percentage gains that gold has registered since 2001 (based on London PM Fix closings):
Excluding 2001, the average gain is 20.4%. Tossing out the additional weak years of '04 and '08, the average advance is 24.8%.
So we can make some projections based on what it's done over the past
10 years. From the 12-31-10 closing price of $1,421.60, if gold
matched…
- The average rise this decade, the price would hit $1,711.60
- The average rise excluding the three weak years = $1,774.15
- Last year's gain = $1,858.03
- The largest advance to date (2007) = $1,875.09
But what if global economic circumstances continue to
deteriorate? What if worldwide price inflation kicks in? And what if
government efforts at currency debasement get more abusive? If Doug
Casey is right, a mania in all things gold lies ahead – what if that
begins in 2011? Here's what price levels could be reached based on the
following percentage gains.
- 35% = $1,919.16
- 40% = $1,990.24
- 45% = $2,061.32
- 50% = $2,132.40
- 1979's gain of 125.7% = $3,208.55
It thus seems reasonable to expect gold to surpass $1,800 this
year, as well as reach a potentially higher level since the factors
pushing on the price could become more pronounced.
Here's a look at silver.
As you can see, silver had its biggest advance in 2010. The average
of the decade, again excluding 2001, was 27.5%. And also tossing out the
'08 decline, the average gain is 34.3%. So, from the 12-31-10 closing
price of $30.91, if silver matched...
- The average rise this decade, the price would hit $39.41
- The average gain excluding 2008 = $41.51
- Last year's advance = $56.22
- The 1979 gain of 267.5% = $113.59
So, $50 silver seems perfectly attainable this year. And that's without monetary conditions worsening.
It's titillating to ponder these advances for gold and silver,
especially when you consider we might be getting close to the mania. And
if we are, that should do wonderful things to our gold and silver
stocks, too.
I would add one caution: the odds are high that there will be a
significant correction before gold begins its march to these price
levels. In every year but two ('02 and '06), gold fell below its
prior-year close before heading higher. And here's something to watch
for: in every year but one ('08), those lows occurred by May.
In other words, a buying opportunity may be dead ahead. And if
you buy on the next correction, your gains on the year could be higher
than the annual advance.
----
Are you satisfied with the amount of bullion you own if monetary and
fiscal circumstances deteriorate? Are you prepared to profit from the
mania in precious metals that Doug Casey projects is ahead? If not,
start the year right with a risk-free trial to BIG GOLD, where we list the safest dealers to buy physical metal and the best stocks to profit from the ongoing bull market. Check it out here.
廣告
加好友 
發(fā)短信
Post By：2011/4/4 21:20:00
愛心天使
